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摘要

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引用本文:

DOI:

10.11834/jrs.20030502

收稿日期:

2003-07-06

修改日期:

2003-07-10

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SARS预测的SI模型和分段SI模型
1.北京师范大学数学系,数据统计与分析中心,北京100875;2.北京师范大学遥感与GIS 研究中心, 北京100875;3.中国科学院遥感应用研究所,北京100101
摘要:

介绍及建立了对SARS(Severe acute respiratory syndrome)临床诊断累计病例预测的非线性增长模型:SI(Susceptible and infective)模型和分段SI模型,并对北京SARS累计病例进行了预测。分段SI模型转变点的95%的置信区间在4月21日、22日和23日内,表明我国政府采取了有力措施后,4月24日以后,SARS病例的增长率发生显著变化。

SI Models and Piecewise SI Model on SARS Forecasting
Abstract:

This paper introduces and sets up some kinds of nonlinear growth models, the SI(Susceptible and infective) model and piecewise SI model, for forecasting clinical diagnose cumulative SARS(Severe acute respiratory syndrome) cases is Beijing. The 95% confidence interval of the time change point on piecewise SI model is made well which includes April 21, 22 and 23. It means some control policies in Beijing at the end of this April 24 played an important role for anti-spreading of SARS, after change of increase rate for SARS cases is quite significant.

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