首页 >  2022, Vol. 26, Issue (2) : 243-267

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DOI:

10.11834/jrs.20221806

收稿日期:

2021-12-07

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全球碳盘点卫星遥感监测方法、进展与挑战
刘良云1,陈良富1,刘毅2,杨东旭2,张兴嬴3,卢乃锰3,居为民4,江飞4,尹增山5,刘国华5,田龙飞5,胡登辉5,毛慧琴6,刘思含6,张建辉6,雷莉萍1,范萌1,张雨琮1,周翔1,吴一戎1
1.中国科学院空天信息创新研究院, 北京 100094;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029;3.中国气象局国家卫星气象中心, 北京 100081;4.南京大学, 南京 210023;5.中国科学院微小卫星创新研究院, 上海 201203;6.生态环境部卫星环境应用中心, 北京 100094
摘要:

以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化已成为全球性环境问题,对全球可持续发展带来严峻挑战。2015年《巴黎协定》确定了自2020年后国家自主贡献的减排方式,并从2023年开始每5 a开展一次全球碳盘点。2019年第49届IPCC全会明确增加了基于卫星遥感的排放清单校验方法。欧盟、美国、日本、加拿大等正在大力发展温室气体排放的MVS(Monitoring and Verification Support)能力。本文调研分析了全球碳盘点对卫星遥感技术的需求,介绍了全球碳盘点卫星遥感的技术原理,梳理了温室气体卫星遥感、生态系统碳源汇卫星遥感估算、人为源碳排放卫星遥感、碳通量同化估算等全球碳盘点卫星遥感核心环节的研究现状与进展,分析了当前卫星遥感技术对全球碳盘点任务的支撑能力,并结合国内外发展趋势,针对性地提出中国的碳监测卫星计划方案,并展望了中国开展全球碳盘点卫星遥感监测重点任务,期望为中国全球碳盘点卫星遥感体系建设提供思路与方案。

Satellite remote sensing for global stocktaking: Methods, progress and perspectives
Abstract:

Climate warming has become a great challenge for global sustainable development. Under the Paris Agreement, every country must present a climate action plan in five-yearly cycles, a National Determined Contributions (NDC) report will be presented using a standard inventory approach for each country since 2020, and all countries will engage in the global stocktake every five years to assess countries’ NDC progress since 2023. The 49th session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 49) recommend a ‘top-down’ inversion approach to account greenhouse gas (GHG) emission based on space-borne atmospheric measurements. The European Union, the United States, Japan, and Canada are vigorously developing MVS (Monitoring & Verification Support) capabilities for accounting GHG emissions using satellite remote sensing. Here, we aimed to give a detailed review on the methods and progresses of satellite-based inversion for global stocktaking, and highlight the challenges and perspectives for satellite remote sensing for global stocktaking in China.Firstly, Earth observation for atmospheric GHG, including ground-based observation networks and GHG satellites, were summarized. Compared to ground-based observations, satellite remote sensing has been providing more and more accurate and higher resolution global GHG detection. In the next five years, 13 GHG satellites will be launched, with resolutions ranging from 25 m to 100 km. Secondly, the progresses of satellite remote sensing of ecosystem carbon fluxes were reviewed. There are three kinds of methods to estimate global carbon fluxes, including: the assimilation inversion method (also named as the “top-down” method), that uses atmospheric chemical transmission model and ground-based or satellite observations of atmospheric GHG to invert carbon flux; the modelling simulation method (also named as the “bottom-up” method) that uses the process model to estimate terrestrial and marine ecosystems carbon fluxes; the data-driven machine learning method that uses remote sensing datasets and metrological datasets to model the carbon uptakes of terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, the uncertainty in the estimation results of all these top-down or bottom-up methods is still huge at regional or global scale. Thirdly, the researches on satellite monitoring of anthropogenic GHG emissions were summarized. Satellite remote sensing has been an important platform for realizing large-scale, long-term observations of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Although the current accuracy of the satellite-based observations does not fully meet the requirements of the global stocktake, satellite remote sensing has become a promising tool for verifying hot-spot, city, national and global anthropogenic emissions. Finally, the current capability of satellite remote sensing to support global carbon monitoring was assessed, and the Chinese carbon satellite future program was proposed. According the preliminary simulations based on Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSE), the China’s next generation carbon satellite (TanSat-2) are presented. Similar to CO2M project supported by European Union, TanSat-2 will give global accurate retrieval of GHGs (1 ppm for CO2 and 10 ppb for CH4), pollution gases (1.0×1015 molecules/cm2 for NO2, 10% for CO) and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) (0.25 mw m-2·nm-1·sr-1) with a swath of 1000 km and a resolution 500 m resolution, which will provide unprecedented imaging capabilities for estimating GHG emissions.Satellite remote sensing plays extremely role in build the MVS capability for global stocktake, we provide a reference for the roadmap of the Chinese carbon monitoring program based on the preliminary OSSE simulations. It is absolutely necessary to integrate satellite remote sensing, in-situ observations, big data, carbon assimilation to achieve high precision, high-resolution scientific data on GHG fluxes at hot-spot, regional and global scales, and to effectively distinguish and quantify the flux contributions of anthropogenic GHG emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks /sources.

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