生态系统服务权衡协同关系是掌握区域生态演化机理的重要指标。大量研究以行政区作为整体，对区域内的生态系统服务权衡协同关系进行描述，但是有关区域内生态系统服务空间异质性及多种生态系统服务间影响差异性的研究尚缺乏。本文以汾河流域作为研究区，基于1986、1995、2005、2015四期影像解译得到的土地利用分类结果，以及统计和生态数据，利用多尺度地理加权回归模型（MGWR）对生态系统服务权衡协同关系进行分析，并通过与土地利用数据相结合，定量分析土地转移对生态系统服务权衡协同关系的影响，探究生态系统服务的演化机理。研究表明：多尺度地理加权回归模型能解决生态系统服务权衡协同关系存在的空间异质性，从而准确揭示多种生态系统服务之间的内在关系；利用多尺度地理加权回归模型获得最佳生态系统服务组合的方式能有效降低数据冗余，提高工作效率；土地利用类型的变化是生态系统服务权衡协同关系演化的主要驱动因素；流域内植被退化会使粮食生产和产水量之间的权衡关系下降，使生物多样性和产水量等其他生态服务之间的协同关系下降；1986~2015年间流域内单项生态系统服务间以协同关系为主导，且水源涵养与产水量间的协同关系最显著，平均协同率为75.6%。研究结果可为汾河流域土地利用优化和生态系统服务改善提供参考。

Objective: The trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services is an important indicator to understand the mechanism of regional ecological evolution. A large number of studies have taken administrative regions as a whole to describe the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services, while there is still a lack of research on the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services within a region and the differences in the impact of various ecosystem services. Method: In this paper, the Fenhe River Basin is taken as the study area. Based on the land use classification results of the Fenhe River Basin obtained from the remote sensing image interpretation of 1986, 1995, 2005 and 2015, as well as the statistical and other ecological data, the multi-scale geographically weighted regression model was used to analyze the trade-off and synergy between ecosystem services indicators. By combining with the land use data, the influence of land transfer on the trade-off synergy of ecosystem services was quantitatively analyzed, and the evolution mechanism of ecosystem service function was explored. Result: The research shows that: (1) Multi-scale geographically weighted regression model can solve the spatial heterogeneity existing in the trade-off synergy of ecosystem services, so as to accurately reveal the internal relationship between multiple ecosystem services; (2) Using multi-scale geographically weighted regression model to obtain the best combination of ecosystem services can effectively reduce data redundancy and improve work efficiency; (3) The change of land use class is the main driving factor for the evolution of ecosystem service trade-off synergy; (4) Vegetation degradation in the river basin will reduce the trade-off between grain production and water yield, and reduce the synergy between biological diversity and water yield, and other ecological services. (5) From 1986 to 2015, the synergistic relationship between individual ecosystem services in the basin was dominant, and the synergistic relationship between water conservation and water yield was the most significant, with an average synergistic rate of 75.6%. There was a trade-off relationship between grain production and water yield, and the trade-off relationship increased first and then decreased. Conclusion: The main innovation of this paper is to use multiscale geographically weighted regression model to solve the spatial heterogeneity of regional ecosystem services, which can reduce the analysis error caused by spatial heterogeneity. And, we found MGWR model can also obtain the optimal ecosystem service combination efficiently, which can reduce the data redundancy of ecosystem service analysis. The results can provide reference for land use optimization and ecosystem service improvement in Fenhe River Basin.