首页 >  2020, Vol. 24, Issue (3) : 326-332

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DOI:

10.11834/jrs.20200055

收稿日期:

2020-02-27

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沙漠蝗群对印巴边境植被的影响及其未来可能发展趋势
房世波1,韩威2,裴志方1
1.中国气象科学研究院生态与农业气象研究所,北京100081;2.国家气象中心,北京100081
摘要:

2020年初非洲东北和印巴边境沙漠蝗群席卷多个国家,大面积农田及自然植被被啃食,是什么气候条件促成了此次沙漠蝗灾?距离中国最近的印巴边境蝗群成为研究以及社会关注的热点,蝗灾对当地植被的影响如何?其发展趋势如何?从气候学上分析,蝗灾历史上是否曾经或者未来是否向印度东边迁飞而进入中国呢?本研究利用长时间序列的卫星遥感数据和气象气候观测数据,对沙漠蝗群可能扩展趋势进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)由于沙漠蝗群的啃食,2020年1月和2月,在蝗群分布区大面积植被区的归一化植被指数较常年大幅度下降,2月(2月3日数据)的啃食面积较1月明显扩大;(2)发生在2018年5月和10月两次印度洋飓风和2019年12月强热带风暴等几个罕见气旋给非洲和阿拉伯半岛带来的强降水,是本次非洲—西亚蝗灾的形成重要原因;(3)从影响沙漠蝗群起飞的气温和沙漠蝗虫适合的降水条件来看,历史上或未来沙漠蝗群迁徙到印度东边的机会很少,进入中国的可能性非常小。

Desert Locust Swarms impact on the local vegetation along India-Pakistan border and their possible development trends
Abstract:

The Desert Locust (Schistocercagregaria) has been an important agricultural pest at least since biblical times. Desert Locust Swarms in Northeast Africa and the India-Pakistan border swept through many countries at the end of 2019 and in early 2020. Large areas of farmland and natural vegetation were eaten, threatening local agricultural and animal husbandry production. The occurrence and development of Desert Locusts of African is closely related to climatic factors such as local precipitation (soil moisture), temperature, wind speed and wind direction. So what climatic conditions contributed to this Desert Locust Swarms? And the Locust Swarms near the India-Pakistan border where is the closest Locust Swarms to China has become a hot spot for research and Chinese media. How did the Locust Swarms near the India-Pakistan border effect on the local vegetation? What is its development trend? Is it possible to fly into China? The impact of Desert locusts of the Indian-Pakistani border on local plants was analyzed by using time series satellite remote sensing data. The climatic factors connection with takeoff and migration of the Desert Locust Swarms were summarized based on past literatures, and the expansion trend of the Desert Locust Swarms and its possibility of entering China were analyzed based on the climatic characteristics such as precipitation and temperature in Africa and West Asia. It was concluded that: (1) due to the vegetation gnawing by the Desert Locust Swarms, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) of the large-scale area decreased obviously compared with normal years in January and February 2020 in Indian-Pakistani border area, and the area of NDVI decreased was enlarged in February compared to January; (2) Several rare cyclones(two in 2018,one in 2019) that brought strong precipitation to eastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula played an important role for this Africa horn-West Asia locust plague; (3) After analyzing the swarms takeoff temperature and Desert Locusts suitable breeding moisture( precipitation conditions), it suggested that the Locust Swarms had rare chance to migrate to eastern India, and it is even less likely to enter China.

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