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引用本文:

DOI:

10.11834/jrs.20209216

收稿日期:

2019-06-21

修改日期:

2020-03-23

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中亚地区植被对气候变化的响应机制初探
摘要:

为了解气候变化对中亚干旱地区植被的潜在影响以及分析不同典型植被对气候因子的时间响应,应用2000-2013年的MODIS-NDVI时间序列数据集与CHELSA气候再分析数据进行回归分析和时间序列相关分析提取植被/降水/温度的空间格局及变化趋势、NDVI与降水/温度的线性相关关系与时间响应模式,再结合土地覆盖/利用类型与陆地生态分区在像元尺度上分析不同典型植被对气候变化的相关性以及不同生态分区对气候响应的差异性,进而探讨中亚地区植被对气候变化的响应机制。研究结果表明:1)中亚地区NDVI值普遍偏低,总体呈现出高海拔向低海拔减小趋势,降水分布在空间上由中亚东部到西部递减,且随着海拔降低降水量随之下降,温度由西部到东部递减,新疆则是由中部向外部递减;2000-2013年间,中亚地区东北部NDVI呈下降趋势,南部呈上升趋势,降水与温度变化趋势在不同地域存在显著差异。2)植被与降水呈正相关关系的像元主要分布在海拔较高的地区,负相关的像元主要分布在相对湿润的地区以及河流、湖泊沿岸;植被与温度的线性相关性为东部较湿润地区相关关系显著,西部干旱与半干旱地区相关性较低甚至为负相关。3)中亚大部分地区植被与降水之间存在0-32d的滞后时长以及16-96d不等的累积时长,但对当期的温度相关性较高,存在16-48d的累积时长;不同典型植被对降水的响应差异明显,对温度的响应除裸地外,其他植被类型对温度的时间响应基本一致。4)不同生态分区对降水/温度的响应具有差异,森林区植被对降水的滞后时长与累积时长较长,高寒草甸区植被对降水滞后和累积时间长,对温度的累积与滞后时长短。

The response mechanism of vegetation to climate change in central Asia
Abstract:

This study aims to understand the potential impact of climate variety and analyse the temporal delay response on different type of vegetation.Based on MODIS-NDVI data and CHELSA V1.2 climate data for the period of 2000-2013,We applied regression analysis and timeseries correlation analysis to extract vegetation/temperature/precipitation dynamics change pattern and investigate the linear correlation relationship between climate variable and vegetation,then combined with land cover/use data and terrestrial ecoregion to analyse the response pattern of different type of vegetation and the discrepancy of different ecoregion at pixel,intended to discuss the response mechanism of vegetation to climate change in central Asia.Results showed that 1)Annual average of NDVI is generally low,?it shows a decreasing trend from high altitude to low altitude.The spatial distribution of precipitation decreases from the east to the west of central Asia,the temperature decreases from the west to the east except for Xinjiang.In the period of 2000-2013,NDVI shows a decreasing trend in northeast, increasing trend in south,an d the variation trend of precipitation and temperature is significantly different in different regions.2)Pixel clusters of positive correlation between precipitation and vegetation mainly distributed in high altitude areas,while the pixels clusters of negative correlation mainly distributed in the areas of humid and along rivers or lakes. The linear correlation relationship between vegetation and temperature is significant in humid areas of eastern central Asia, the low correlation relationship and negative correlation relationship in arid and semi-arid areas of western central Asia.3)The most area of central Asia had the lag period of 0-32d and the cumulative period of 16-96d between vegetation and precipitation, while high correlation relationship between current temperature and vegetation with the cumulative period of 16-48d. The response of different typical vegetation to precipitation was significantly different, and the response to temperature was nearly same which had highly correlated of current month,the longer lag period had the lower correlation relationship except for bare land.4)Different ecoregion have different response to precipitation/temperature. Forest has a long lag/ cumulation period to precipitation, alpine meadow has a long lag/cumulation period to precipitation and a short lag/cumulation period to temperature.

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