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引用本文:

DOI:

10.11834/jrs.20209066

收稿日期:

2019-03-03

修改日期:

2019-04-25

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北极重要海峡气温-海冰密集度影响滞后效应分析
黄季夏1, 孙宇晗2,3, 王利4, 曹云锋1, 杨林生4
1.北京林业大学 教育部森林培育与保护重点实验室;2.中国科学院大学;3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;4.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室
摘要:

全球变暖导致北极海冰的面积与厚度逐步减小,这一趋势为北极通航提供了可能,提升了北极航道的战略地位,进而改变北极地缘环境格局。北极地区的重要海峡作为“冰上丝绸之路”运输的重要交通枢纽,其冰情变化直接影响北极航道的开通。本研究以北极地区东北航道和西北航道上14个重要海峡近35年的海冰密集度为研究对象,采用分布式滞后非线性模型,研究海冰表面气温对北极重要海峡海冰密集度变化的阈值和滞后效应。研究结果表明:①除白令海峡、尤戈尔斯基沙尔海峡和喀拉海峡以外,其他11个海峡气温对海冰密集度变化的影响都存在高温阈值,并且其阈值集中在-10℃附近;②高温对于海冰密集度变化的影响存在0-3月的滞后期,而低温的滞后期为0-4月;③14个海峡在非线性滞后模型中表现出不尽相同的滞后效应,存在空间异质性特征。滞后期内高温影响最为剧烈的是维利基茨基海峡,相对累积效应值为-3.34%(-5.6%~-1.1%);④整体上看,东北航道滞后有效期与西北航道相比较长,东北航道受温度影响的滞后效应值比西北航道的要大,且在高纬环境下高温对相对海冰变化的影响较明显。

Analysis on the Lag Effect of Temperature - Sea Ice Concentration in Key Arctic Straits
Abstract:

In the context of global warming, the area and thickness of arctic sea ice is gradually decreasing, which provides the possibility for arctic navigation, promotes the strategic position of Arctic channel, and changes the Arctic geo-environmental pattern. The straits of the Arctic region serve as an important transportation hub for "Polar Silk Road", and their changes in ice conditions directly affect the opening of the Arctic passage. This study takes the sea ice concentration in the northeast passage of the arctic region and the important straits on the northwest passage for nearly 35 years as the research object and adopts the method of the distributed lag nonlinear model. The effects of sea ice surface temperature exposure factors on sea ice concentration change in arctic strait are studied . Studying the threshold and lag effects of sea-ice surface temperature on sea-ice concentration changes in important arctic straits. The research results show that:(1)In addition to the Bering strait, the other 11 straits have a high temperature threshold for the influence of sea ice concentration changes, and their thresholds are concentrated around -10 °C;(2)The effect of high temperature on the change of sea ice concentration has a lag period of 0-3 months, while the lag period of low temperature is 0-4 months.(3)The 14 straits show different lag effects and spatial heterogeneity in the nonlinear lag model. Vilkitsky is the strait with the most severe influence of high temperature in the lag period, and the relative cumulative effect value is -3.34% (-5.6%~-1.1%);(4)On the whole, the lag period of the northeast passage is longer than that of the northwest passage, and the lag effect value of the northeast passage affected by temperature is larger than that of the northwest passage. In addition, high temperature has a more obvious impact on the change of relative sea ice in the high-latitude environment.

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