从大气探测的基本原理出发,利用2001—2002年4—10月逐时的气象卫星红外云图和地面观测资料,对云图进行参数化估计,得到一些参数化估计结果,分析了不同视场条件下各类参数与降雨强度的关系,发现测站降水强度和其上空一定视场范围内的平均亮温、亮温方差、等效云量、亮温面积指数(1级、5级、6级)关系较明显,并利用最优子集回归方法建立小区域降水强度的预测方程,检验结果表明:利用红外资料估算未来6h的降雨强度其平均准确率在80%以上,分析视场大小对预测效果影响不大。

In this paper, the GMS-5 infrared cloud mi agery together with surface temperature data of two years in\nBinjiang reaches ofGuangdong province in China is used to study the relationship between infrared cloud mi agery and\nsurface rainfall rates. First, parameterization estmi ate of infrared cloud mi agery ismade on the base ofatmospheric probing\nprinciple, then some parameterization estmi ate resultshave been obtained underdifferentanalysis field from 3×3 to 15×\n15 pixels. The resultshows:1 there exists obvious correlation between the probability ofrain and parameterization estmi ate\nsuch as average brightness temperature(Tb), brightness temperature variance(f), equivalent cloudage(CN), brightness\ntemperature area index(A1—the first,A5—the fifth grade,A6—the sixth grade); 2The rainfall intensity increase,withTb\nandfandCN, and decrease withTbandA1. Finally, the prediction empirical formula of rainfall intensity has been\nestablished bymeans ofoptmi ized subclass regression under different analysis field. The statistical result shows that the\naverage precision ofrainfall intensity isover80% using infrared cloud mi ageryparameters and the size ofanalysis field has\nslight effecton it.