本文针对前人研究粮食生产系统空间变化的不足, 选择1985与1994两个年份的分县粮食生产统计数据为依据, 运用地理信息系统(CAS/GIS)做为分析手段；从空间变化特征、变化成因及变化趋势3个方面, 着重对1984年以来的我国粮食总产的空间变化进行了定量研究。结果表明：在过去十年里, 我国粮食增产量主要来自北方, 南方粮食产量地位明显下降；今后, 南方粮食减产区将会进一步扩大, 北方将成为我国粮食生产发展的重点。

This paper presents a quantitative study of the spatial variation of China's total grain production. First,the author proposes the study method and the research pricess on the spatial variation of China's tota1 grain production. Second, using GIS as an analyzing tool, the characteristics, resu1ts, and trends of spatial variation of China's total grain production are analysed based on the national grain production database (by county unit) within two periods ( in 1985 and 1994) by statistical analyses and choropleth mapping.The. characteristics of China's tota1 grain production can be summarized as follows: (a) the tota1 grain production of 75 percent counties of China has increased absolutely in the past decade; (b) the increased amount of the total grain production of China was mainly produced in the north area;and (c)the decreased amount of total grain production was mainly from the south of China Generally,the variation in tota1 grain production is detennined by two main factors; grain sown area and grain yield. However, the key driving forces of spatial variation of China's tota1 grain production in the past decade are different from the north to the south and from the east to the west as well. For instance, in the Huang-Huai-出i Plain, the key driving force. of the tota1 grain increase was grain yield while in the South-East region, it was grain sown area and so on. After analyzing these characteristics, resons, resu1ts and trends of tota1. grain production variation in the past decade，the paper predicts that the reduction productive areas in southem China will expand, and the north will be the main region to develop China's grain production in the future.